Japan’s “Truly Unthinkable” Rice Shortage

TODAY’S STORY

The Japanese government held a rare auction last week to make up for a rice shortage that an official called “truly unthinkable.”

The government is releasing 165,000 tons of rice from its emergency stockpile—enough for approximately two billion bowls—to address a shortage that has driven prices sharply higher. The cost of an 11-pound bag of rice has doubled over the past year, reaching nearly 4,000 yen ($27).

How did this happen?

1. Japan’s rice harvest was ‘halved’ by heat and stink bug damage in 2023

2. A “megaquake” warning last summer sparked panic buying

3. Japan limits rice production to keep prices high and support domestic operations

Despite Japan lifting its "megaquake" warning and a larger 2024 rice harvest than the prior year, distributors had less to sell. While some experts have theories, much of the shortage may be due to poor planning. Policy changes have made rice distribution harder to track, giving growers more ways to sell outside traditional major distributors. As a result, speculative buying and stockpiling have increased—especially since even the government seems to lack a clear understanding of the situation.

Only time will tell whether the rare rice auction can correct the supply-demand imbalance. For now, however, uncertainty looms over a nation that relies heavily on rice—as of 2022, the average person in Japan consumed about 110 pounds per year, compared to just 27 pounds per year in the U.S.

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Kieran & Justin Ryan