Investors rethink obesity bets

TODAY’S STORY

Investors are losing their appetite for the obesity trade.

Shares in both companies have decreased significantly after last month's lackluster weight-loss trial of a new Novo Nordisk drug and slower-than-expected Q4 revenue from Eli Lilly.

Other external factors are making investors more nervous. Both have increased their U.S. advertising spend, but investors have not seen the corresponding sales bump. Nordisk’s Wegovy and Ozempic were also recently added to the Medicare negotiation list this month, likely causing prices to decline starting in 2027.

There’s also considerable debate around market size—will the obesity drug market be $100Bn by the end of the decade, or is it closer to $80Bn?

There's potential profit on both sides of the trade, but the easy gains are behind us. We're now heading into more turbulent and uncertain conditions.

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Kieran & Justin Ryan